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New Research Shows That a Fraction of EU’s Planned Battery Production is Enough for the Transition to Light Electric Vehicles

PRODUCT DEVELOPMENT/AUTOMOTIVE. 2-3% of EU's forecast battery production can meet the needs of the expected 25 million light electric vehicles (LEVs) on Europe's roads. Vehicle weight is one of the most critical factors in how much energy is required to drive the vehicle. This simple physical fact is a focus in a new research study from EIT Urban Mobility and EIT InnoEnergy, both supported by the European Institute of Innovation and Technology (EIT). It turns out that a shift towards light electric vehicles, so-called LEVs, could benefit from already planned battery production in Europe in such a way that dependence on critical raw materials would be radically reduced. In addition, this would bring a 30% reduction in carbon dioxide emissions for the transport sector by 2030.
In fact, the research study concluded that as little as 2-3% of the EU's projected battery production capacity could meet the needs of the more than 25 million light electric vehicles (LEVs) expected to be on European roads by 2030. This amount of light electric vehicles is enough to reduce CO2e emissions by 30 million tons and thereby contribute to Europe's projected emission reduction for transport of 165 million tons of CO2 equivalent. In addition, supporting the production of batteries for light electric vehicles in Europe could significantly reduce the current dependence on imports from countries outside the EU. Today, 95 percent of the batteries for light electric vehicles are sourced from Asia. But as so often in the climate context, it is urgent. Bernadette Bergsma, Head of Communication and EU Affairs at EIT Urban Mobility, also emphasizes the need for immediate action:
"Light electric vehicles complement public transport and play a key role in the transition to shared mobility in cities. They can accelerate the electrification of road transport and reduce pressure on critical resources. It is urgent to see the light electric vehicle industry and its battery value chain as a strategic asset for Europe's sustainable urban mobility,” she says.
From a commercial point of view, the demand base also looks good. Light electric vehicles, such as electric bicycles, electric scooters and electric mopeds, are fast becoming part of modern urban mobility, with around 10 million units sold in Europe in 2022. European demand for batteries for light electric vehicles is expected to triple by 2030 and double again until 2040, and the study concludes that light electric vehicles are the ideal near-term market for battery cell production, especially for cylindrical cells that are standard for most light electric vehicle applications.
Furthermore, in 2030, Europe's planned battery production capacity of 1,144–1,800 GWh is expected to far exceed the expected battery demand from electric cars of 317–696 GWh. Part of the capacity can therefore be allocated to support the transition to light electric vehicles, which have an estimated annual battery demand of only 36 GWh until 2030 and 71 GWh until 2040, which also require 10-30 times less critical metals than EVs.

The light electric vehicle sector’s need for innovation will also enable advancements and spin-offs that could benefit the entire industry. For example, any possible reductions in costs, improvements in performance or recycling of batteries will lead to significant benefits for suppliers, especially in shared mobility where light vehicle batteries are often used and reused. Improved battery technologies will increase the economic availability and consumer acceptance of light electric vehicles, which is critical for wider adoption. Leveraging cylindrical cells also helps other applications beyond e-mobility, such as drones, power tools, household battery storage and buffered electric vehicle charging, further strengthening and diversifying the European battery value chain.

Sustainable mobility and reduction of emissions
In addition to industry benefits, support for the light electric vehicle market is crucial for a sustainable mobility mix. Today, 13 percent of all short journeys, shorter than 8 km, are made with cars and vans that could potentially be replaced by light electric vehicles, which would save a up to 30 million tons of carbon dioxide equivalents. In addition, the transition benefits public transport and shared mobility, in line with Europe’s climate goals and the pursuit of more sustainable mobility. It is also crucial to support the operational effectiveness of the EU’s upcoming ’battery passport’, which facilitates the repair, reuse and recycling of batteries, along with implementing clearer safety standards and liability guarantees for effective repairs. Investments in battery pack design for easier disassembly and circularity will further strengthen the sustainability of light electric vehicles both in shared mobility and in a wider sense.

Jennifer Dungs, Global Head of Mobility at EIT InnoEnergy, comments on the situation as follows:

“We have put batteries at the center of our efforts to reduce carbon dioxide emissions from road transport. We drive the industrial development of the European Battery Alliance (EBA250), and recently announced the new €500 million EBA Strategic Battery Materials Fund. But more needs to be done to support the adoption of alternative fast-growing mobility solutions – light electric vehicles are low-hanging fruit with a massive impact on Europe’s net zero goals.”

The research study calls for Europe to integrate light electric vehicles into its wider industrial strategy, to support the growth of their entire value chain, including the battery. It will ensure a more comprehensive strategy for the EU’s transition to sustainable mobility.

The study also recommends driving innovation related to battery technologies and circularity. Dedicated research and funding are essential to meet requirements specific to light electric vehicles and overcome barriers to adoption. Improving battery safety, reducing costs and improving performance, combined with regulatory support for repair, reuse and recycling, will ensure continued growth for the LEV sector.

The report can be read in its entirety here: https://www.eiturbanmobility.eu/publi/leveraging-the-eu-battery-production-to-achieve-net-zero-with-light-electric-vehicles/

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